Senegal’s home fuel reserves shall be primarily used to provide electrical energy. Authorities count on that domestic fuel infrastructure projects will come on-line between 2025 and 2026, supplied there isn’t any delay. The monetization of these vital vitality resources is on the foundation of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the global technology group Wärtsilä carried out in-depth studies that analyse the financial impression of the assorted gas-to-power methods obtainable to Senegal. Two very totally different applied sciences are competing to fulfill the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle fuel generators (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These studies have revealed very vital system cost differences between the two major gas-to-power applied sciences the country is currently contemplating. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, gas engines are in reality significantly better suited than mixed cycle gasoline turbines to harness power from Senegal’s new gasoline resources cost-effectively, the examine reveals. Total cost variations between the two technologies might reach as much as 480 million USD till 2035 depending on eventualities.
Two competing and very different technologies
The state-of-the-art power mix models developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised vitality eventualities to determine the fee optimum method to deliver new generation capability for a particular country, shows that ICE and CCGT technologies current vital cost variations for the gas-to-power newbuild program working to 2035.
Although these two applied sciences are equally proven and reliable, they are very different by way of the profiles in which they will operate. CCGT is a technology that has been developed for the interconnected European electrical energy markets, where it can function at 90% load issue always. On the opposite hand, flexible ICE technology can function efficiently in all working profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to another technology applied sciences that may make up the country’s power combine.
In specific our research reveals that when working in an electrical energy network of restricted size corresponding to Senegal’s 1GW national grid, counting on CCGTs to considerably broaden the community capacity can be extraordinarily costly in all potential eventualities.
Cost differences between the technologies are defined by a number of elements. First of all, hot climates negatively impact the output of fuel turbines more than it does that of gasoline engines.
Secondly, thanks to Senegal’s anticipated entry to low cost home gas, the working costs turn into much less impactful than the investment costs. In other words, as a outcome of low gasoline costs lower operating costs, it’s financially sound for the country to rely on ICE energy vegetation, that are cheaper to build.
Technology modularity additionally plays a key function. Senegal is expected to require an additional 60-80 MW of era capability each year to have the ability to meet the growing demand. This is way decrease than the capacity of typical CCGTs plants which averages 300-400 MW that have to be inbuilt one go, resulting in pointless expenditure. Engine energy plants, then again, are modular, which suggests they can be built precisely as and when the country needs them, and additional prolonged when required.
The numbers at play are important. The mannequin reveals that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT vegetation on the expense of ICE-gas, it’s going to result in as much as 240 million dollars of additional cost for the system by 2035. The price difference between the technologies may even increase to 350 million USD in favor of ICE expertise if Senegal additionally chooses to build new renewable vitality capability within the next decade.
Risk-managing potential gasoline infrastructure delays
The development of fuel infrastructure is a complex and prolonged endeavour. Program delays usually are not uncommon, inflicting gasoline supply disruptions that may have an enormous monetary influence on the operation of CCGT crops.
Unauthorized is aware of one thing about that. Only last year, important gas provide points have caused shutdowns at some of the country’s largest fuel turbine power plants. Because Gas turbines operate on a steady combustion course of, they require a relentless provide of fuel and a secure dispatched load to generate consistent power output. If the provision is disrupted, shutdowns happen, placing a great strain on the general system. ICE-Gas crops however, are designed to adjust their operational profile over time and enhance system flexibility. Because of their versatile operating profile, they were in a position to maintain a a lot higher degree of availability
The study took a deep dive to analyse the financial impact of 2 years delay in the gasoline infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the nation decides to speculate into gasoline engines, the value of gas delay can be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would lead to a staggering 770 million dollars in further price.
Whichever means you look at it, new ICE-Gas era capability will minimize the entire cost of electricity in Senegal in all attainable situations. If Senegal is to meet electrical energy demand development in a cost-optimal method, no much less than 300 MW of latest ICE-Gas capacity will be required by 2026.
Share